Thursday, 29 August 2019

PKK Nails it in Q2; I Predict Minimum $6 Million in Revenue and Positive Net Income for 2H 2019


Disclaimer:

This site is operated by Edward Vranic.


Any articles, tweets, stocktalks or any other form of dissemination in person or online are all the sole product of my personal opinion. I may hold positions in securities I mention and reserve the right to open, close, or modify positions at any time without notice. The information provided herein is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a registered investment adviser nor I do not hold any licenses. Individuals are encouraged to consult with their personal financial adviser for financial advice.

There is no guarantee that any estimate, forecast or forward looking statement presented herein will materialize and actual results may vary. Investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to any securities discussed herein, including, but not limited to, the suitability of any transaction to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.

You agree that by reading my material, you are acting at your own risk. In no event will I be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained herein or in other dissemination methods. I make no representations, and specifically disclaim all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. I do not guarantee that I am providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. I recommend that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.

Trading in securities involves risk and volatility. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future.
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Sometimes it's good to be wrong. For Peak Positioning Technologies (PKKFF) (PKK.C) Q2 results, I was expecting between $1.1 million and $1.2 million revenue and possibly slightly positive EBITDA. Instead revenue came in at $1.9 million with $340,000 EBITDA. Net loss was $296,000, net loss excluding taxes was $140,000. We see a steady improvement in financials for the past five quarters and I expect that to accelerate:


Q2 2019Q1 2019Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018
Revenue$1,901,723$949,511$742,038$709,738$224,611
Expenses1$1,561,991$971,233$830,438$953,513$802,379
EBITDA2$339,732($21,722)($88,400)($243,775)($577,768)

There was a 40 million cross trade on PKK on August 29th, representing a $1 million investment, what I like to call a strategic investment. Now for every buyer there is a seller, but people already know who I think the seller is, and the reasons for selling are likely personal and not related to PKK's business. In addition to that, under the subsequent events section of the financials, PKK disclosed a 22.8 million share financing at $0.025 with a one-half warrant at $0.05 to raise $570,000. While more dilution is frustrating, I am fine with this because a. I think the open market buy and the financing are for the same investor(s) and b. I think this is the final time PKK will have to finance, assuming the debentures coming due at the end of the year all get converted. Successful repatriation of earnings in China to Canada will be the final major step in assuring this is the case.

This result pretty much guarantees that PKK's $9 million revenue target set about a year ago for 2019 is met while "slightly EBITDA positive" is smashed. PKK's business is not like a sales business (outside of the sales of credit reports), where one month sales could be high and the next month it could be low. As a lender and a fintech platform for third party lenders, PKK's revenue is going to grow steadily every month, barring an economic catastrophe where defaults go through the roof. This is important because PKK's massive beat likely came from a very big June and June is now the starting point for July and beyond. ASSC accounted for nearly 20% of the company's revenue (likely over $350,000) for the quarter in less than one month of operations, providing further evidence of my assumption.

PKK's revenue was $1.9 million for the quarter and my guess by month would be something like this:

April - $400,000
May - $600,000
June - $900,000

If June was indeed $900,000, that becomes the monthly run rate heading into July. Not only that, not all that business started on June 1. June 25th business, for example, had only five days of operations for the month and will have 31 days for July. Given that and the disclosure that ASSC had less than one full month of operations, July's revenue has to be at least $1 million assuming absolutely no further growth.

If PKK was to stop growing for the rest of the year and simply maintain what it has, that will be $6 million in revenue for the final six months of the year and just slightly under $9 million of revenue for the year. I don't think I need to tell anyone what a ridiculous assumption that is. So unless something very bad happens at a macroeconomic level in China, or Cubeler blows up or something, PKK is going to smash its $9 million revenue estimate.

That takes me to my next point on earnings. PKK had a $140,000 loss excluding taxes and $340,000 positive EBITDA for the quarter. I'm not going to pretend I know Chinese tax law so that could be a wild card as to whether PKK actually gets to positive net income. But excluding taxes, operating income will almost certainly be positive. On $950,000 additional revenue over Q1, EBITDA improved by $360,000. As revenue will be a minimum $3 million for Q3, over a million dollars higher than Q2, it's reasonable to assume a similar EBITDA flow through. EBITDA should be in excess of $700,000 for Q3. And if that is the case, an additional $360,000 in EBITDA should flow pretty closely to the bottom line. Interest on debt/finance costs and depreciation (two of the three lines items differentiating EBITDA from net income with taxes being the third) should be relatively stable amounts from Q2 to Q3. That would leave PKK with over $200,000 in net income before taxes. This is why I believe that the $570,000 financing will be the final private placement of shares that the company undertakes. Additional financing with debt might be the way to go moving forward. 

One final note, I noticed that PKK management is very specifically mentioning the Cubeler Lending Hub in the news release when the company could just as easily refer only to ASDS. I think this is done with purpose. As some may know, Cubeler is its own private company, also held by members of management. In the event of venture capital raise or an eventual IPO, management wants to be sure that Cubeler is mentioned alongside PKK as a big driver for its success. But of course, PKK actually needs to prove that it is a major success first. This benefits PKK shareholders even if they aren't involved in Cubeler because management has an even greater incentive beyond their duties owed to shareholders and owners of PKK stock. Cubeler's chance of success is greatly enhanced if PKK becomes a legitimate large cap stock.

Monday, 20 May 2019

Bristow Group: Activist Investor Is Not Giving Up On The Stock

Disclaimer:

This site is operated by Edward Vranic.


Any articles, tweets, stocktalks or any other form of dissemination in person or online are all the sole product of my personal opinion. I may hold positions in securities I mention and reserve the right to open, close, or modify positions at any time without notice. The information provided herein is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a registered investment adviser nor I do not hold any licenses. Individuals are encouraged to consult with their personal financial adviser for financial advice.

There is no guarantee that any estimate, forecast or forward looking statement presented herein will materialize and actual results may vary. Investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to any securities discussed herein, including, but not limited to, the suitability of any transaction to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.

You agree that by reading my material, you are acting at your own risk. In no event will I be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained herein or in other dissemination methods. I make no representations, and specifically disclaim all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. I do not guarantee that I am providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. I recommend that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.

Trading in securities involves risk and volatility. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future.
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Bristow Group Inc. (BRS) (BRSWQ) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last week and management's complete inaction to appeal caused the stock to be immediately de-listed from the NYSE. Playing a bankrupt stock is a risky game, though it can be profitable if you pick the right one. Stocks like Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLDQ) and Aceto Corporation (ACETQ) have seen significant bounces from their lows, if only temporary, while Synergy Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SGYPQ) has sunk to less than a penny with no bounce of note since getting kicked to the OTC.

Bristow has already seen a nice lift, doubling from its low. Institutions are giving up on the stock while retail day traders betting on a gap fill to 27 cents and shorts covering their positions likely form most of the buy side. One particularly vocal activist investor, Global Value Investment Corp, has released an open letter to Bristow and has nominated four directors to replace the existing BOD. I received confirmation from GVIC's CEO Jeff Geygan that GVIC continues to advocate for equity holders:




This is important because even though Bristow is in Chapter 11 proceedings, a stock is worth exactly how much someone is willing to pay for it. It appears that GVIC remains passionately involved in the story and will be vocal if/when an Equity Committee is formed. GVIC claims to be the beneficial owner of 245,940 shares of Bristow’s common stock. Even though the firm paid a lot for those shares, right now this position has a market value of only $27,000. I believe that it is likely that GVIC will purchase a larger stake to make this effort more worthwhile, to significantly lower its average cost as well as to secure more votes for its slate of Board of Directors should a vote ever take place.

I encourage any retail shareholders who continue to hold through this process to vote in favor of any motion brought forth by GVIC, including the new slate of Board members, because it is obvious that management is very willing to throw shareholders under the bus. This action can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more people who back GVIC, the stronger its position gets and the more likely that the stock spikes on rumors of a recovery for shareholders. Sometimes it's more about the noise than reality.

Bristow's 10/15/2022 unsecured notes trade at around 20-25% of par value right now. That should give an indication that the market does not see much hope for full recovery on this set of bonds. And equity generally doesn't get anything until bonds are fully repaid (there have been exceptions to this where equity gets a small stake or warrants in the newly restructured company). So Bristow equity is risky. There is also a chance that GVIC could focus on buying these bonds instead, given that they have a greater chance of partial to full recovery when compared to the stock.

Disclosure: I am long Bristow on a speculative short term trade. I intend to sell some or all of my position in the near term, though I may hold some of my position for a longer period of time.

Friday, 19 April 2019

PKK Released Q4 Results. Financial Performance is Headed in the Right Direction

Disclaimer:

This site is operated by Edward Vranic.


Any articles, tweets, stocktalks or any other form of dissemination in person or online are all the sole product of my personal opinion. I may hold positions in securities I mention and reserve the right to open, close, or modify positions at any time without notice. The information provided herein is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a registered investment adviser nor I do not hold any licenses. Individuals are encouraged to consult with their personal financial adviser for financial advice.

There is no guarantee that any estimate, forecast or forward looking statement presented herein will materialize and actual results may vary. Investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to any securities discussed herein, including, but not limited to, the suitability of any transaction to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.

You agree that by reading my material, you are acting at your own risk. In no event will I be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained herein or in other dissemination methods. I make no representations, and specifically disclaim all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. I do not guarantee that I am providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. I recommend that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.

Trading in securities involves risk and volatility. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future.
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PKK released its Q4 results, building on the improved results we saw in Q3. The company didn't provide an EBITDA chart like it did in its Q3 press release, but I have done my own calculations:

No photo description available.

Revenue increased from $710,000 to $742,000 which was in line with my forecast seen in a post last November and below under the "Q4 estimate" section. I expected just a slight lift in revenue from the marginally increased loan capacity of ASFC as cash flows from lending activities from the previous period are reinvested and a tiny bit of revenue from third party lenders on the Cubeler platform who were in a trial period using it.


I was far more impressed by the EBITDA results. An $89,000 EBITDA loss versus my expectation of a $300,000 loss. Based on that kind of trajectory, I'm optimistic that we could see positive EBITDA numbers as soon as Q1 which will be released within six weeks.

Why did I think EBITDA loss was going to go in the wrong direction compared to Q3? PKK is a growth company that has done and will need to continue to do hiring. Some R&D investments were made as part of the Cubeler trial period for the third party lenders and revenue growth wasn't going to be that much for Q4. So I thought expenses would have increased greater than revenue for Q4. Expenses did increase but mainly in the form of usual year-end type of cleanup that auditors require like the impairment of the intangible asset of $471,000. But those types of expenses are excluded from the EBITDA calculation. Ideally that is the end of these types of write-offs as PKK anticipates relaunching Gold River under the AST subsidiary and therefore will be a revenue-generating entity again and its remaining book value won't be subject to hastened write-offs.

Something else to point out is the decrease in the non-controlling interest profit (the 49% of ASFC's profit that goes to its minority stakeholders) from $144,000 in Q3 to $25,000 in Q4. Based on ASFC's stable operations and margins, I am surprised to see such a variance. I would have expected around $150,000 in net profit going to the minority interest in Q4. One theory I have is that the minority interest took acceptance of costs in excess of $100,000 away from PKK, accounting for the difference in the minority interest profit negative variance and EBITDA positive variance. This is all just my guesswork though. But it doesn't really matter that much. Q4 was meant to be a transitional quarter for most investors. It is Q1 and especially Q2 in 2019 that I am particularly looking forward to seeing.

Based on these results and the Wenyi acquisition in January, I am expecting revenue to be in excess of $1 million in Q1 with  EBITDA being in the range of -$50,000 to +$50,000. If PKK can show a quarter being essentially EBITDA breakeven (with the expectation of overall net loss after interest and deprecation), this will be a very positive news story leading into Q2 where things should really get interesting. The good news is after we were waiting for five months between Q3 and the annual report, we are in the golden period where this report, Q1 and Q2 will come in the same amount of time.

Wednesday, 20 March 2019

SOLO Is Fully Funded And Will Not Be Seeking Financing Per CEO

As Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. (SOLO) is hot again, I have read many bearish arguments stating that the company will be financing. I have gotten confirmation from CEO Jerry Kroll that this is not the case. Here is a screenshot of my conversation with him, with his exact words being:

"Electra Meccanica is fully funded and not seeking an equity capital raise for the foreseeable future."



















I am merely sharing his statement and I do not make any guarantees that his opinion will be right. But after speaking with him, I have a certain level of confidence that SOLO will be a great speculative investment in 2019 and I have to give the benefit of the doubt that what he is saying regarding no need for financing will be true. We will see for sure in coming quarters when operating cash flow/burn becomes apparent. I am long SOLO warrants trading under the symbol SOLOW and I intend to hold at least some of the warrants to $10 on the stock which makes the warrants intrinsically worth $5.75. The warrants expire in 2023 so there is a lot of time left for this cheap leveraged upside. You can see my opinion on Seeking Alpha about SOLO as an investment and the opportunity on the SOLOW warrants:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216377-electrameccanica-time-transform-2-billion-worth-electric-vehicle-pre-orders-sales

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1107010-edward-vranic-cfa/5270643-bloomberg-pimping-electrameccanica-canadas-tesla-consider-buying-solow-warrants-cheap-long


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4244694-electrameccanica-buy-warrants-short-spikes-stock-potentially-actionable-arbitrage-opportunity



Monday, 25 February 2019

KFG Resources: Insider Buying Ahead of a Share Buyback on a Profitable Oil Company

Disclaimer:

This site is operated by Edward Vranic.


Any articles, tweets, stocktalks or any other form of dissemination in person or online are all the sole product of my personal opinion. I may hold positions in securities I mention and reserve the right to open, close, or modify positions at any time without notice. The information provided herein is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a registered investment adviser nor I do not hold any licenses. Individuals are encouraged to consult with their personal financial adviser for financial advice.

There is no guarantee that any estimate, forecast or forward looking statement presented herein will materialize and actual results may vary. Investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to any securities discussed herein, including, but not limited to, the suitability of any transaction to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.

You agree that by reading my material, you are acting at your own risk. In no event will I be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained herein or in other dissemination methods. I make no representations, and specifically disclaim all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. I do not guarantee that I am providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. I recommend that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.

Trading in securities involves risk and volatility. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future.
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I'm not big on oil right now, though I'm definitely watching closely as I think there are a lot of cheap deals out there. KFG Resources (KFG.V) is an exception; one that I have to own now. While stocks on my watch list like CPG and BTE are in the gutter, KFG is just a penny off its 52-week high with very little on the ask. I couldn't accumulate a very big position, but have held on for several months.

Why this oil company? Because it is profitable, has cash and is willing to spend cash on growth and a share repurchase plan. Here is a screen capture of the last income statement. This should be pretty self-explanatory.



The balance sheet also looks pretty good for a company with a $3M market cap:


With this kind of financial performance, KFG has flexibility with cash, and it sure is using it. KFG made a purchase of Saskatchewan oil assets last week. But more importantly, announced a normal course issuer bid to the tune of 2.5 million shares (~5%) in January. The company has the intention, though not the obligation, to buy back 2.5 million shares on the open market to January 15, 2020.

Insider transactions show 21,000 shares have already been bought back, and then insiders bought 256,000 more at 5.5 cents last week. Ha, I'll let the readers come to their own opinions over the actions of management buying up shares right before the open market buy back. But from an investment thesis standpoint, it looks pretty bullish either way.








Wednesday, 23 January 2019

It's January, And Peak Is Already Half Way To Its $9 Million Revenue Forecast For 2019

Disclaimer:

This site is operated by Edward Vranic.


Any articles, tweets, stocktalks or any other form of dissemination in person or online are all the sole product of my personal opinion. I may hold positions in securities I mention and reserve the right to open, close, or modify positions at any time without notice. The information provided herein is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a registered investment adviser nor I do not hold any licenses. Individuals are encouraged to consult with their personal financial adviser for financial advice.

There is no guarantee that any estimate, forecast or forward looking statement presented herein will materialize and actual results may vary. Investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to any securities discussed herein, including, but not limited to, the suitability of any transaction to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.

You agree that by reading my material, you are acting at your own risk. In no event will I be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained herein or in other dissemination methods. I make no representations, and specifically disclaim all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. I do not guarantee that I am providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. I recommend that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.

Trading in securities involves risk and volatility. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future.
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Peak Positioning Technologies (PKKFF) (PKK.C) announced this morning an update to its ASCS operations. 232 loans worth a combined CAD$17.8M in value were transferred from Wenyi. In the second paragraph in the release about the $1 billion in loans announced on Monday, ASCS receives a service fee of 6% to 8% annually on the amount of the loans it services payable on a monthly basis.

It's not completely clear by the construction of the release, but having talked with management, I believe that all loans serviced under the ASCS subsidiary originating from Wenyi's business or connections will be subject to this rate. Assuming this is correct, ASCS will be earning between $1 million and $1.4 million through servicing these loans. Add in the $750,000 per quarter or $3 million per year from ASFC and Peak will have confirmed over $4 million in revenue, just by operating at the status quo. That doesn't include a penny earned from the $1 billion loan agreement, which can reasonably be expected to generate well over $10 million in revenue this year with just a partial fulfillment. The $9 million revenue forecast for 2019 should be easily beaten.

As far as Q1 is concerned, revenue should be over the $1 million mark. $750,000 from ASFC plus $250,000 or so from the newly transferred Wenyi business that will cover 80% of the quarter. Not including any other goodies the company will have for us.

Monday, 21 January 2019

Peak Positioning Technologies Will Be Making 6% To 8% Loaning Up To A Billion Of OTHER People's Money

Disclaimer:

This site is operated by Edward Vranic.


Any articles, tweets, stocktalks or any other form of dissemination in person or online are all the sole product of my personal opinion. I may hold positions in securities I mention and reserve the right to open, close, or modify positions at any time without notice. The information provided herein is strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.  I am not a registered investment adviser nor I do not hold any licenses. Individuals are encouraged to consult with their personal financial adviser for financial advice.

There is no guarantee that any estimate, forecast or forward looking statement presented herein will materialize and actual results may vary. Investors are encouraged to do their own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with respect to any securities discussed herein, including, but not limited to, the suitability of any transaction to their risk tolerance and investment objectives.

You agree that by reading my material, you are acting at your own risk. In no event will I be liable for any direct or indirect trading losses caused by any information contained herein or in other dissemination methods. I make no representations, and specifically disclaim all warranties, express, implied, or statutory, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any material contained in this site. I do not guarantee that I am providing all of the information that may be available on any topic written. I recommend that you do your own due diligence and consult a registered financial adviser before buying or selling any security.

Trading in securities involves risk and volatility. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future.
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Peak Positioning Technologies (PKKFF) (PKK.C) announced that it signed an agreement to service up to $1 billion in bank loans. Between that announcement and the follow up press release, we know the following:
  • PKK, through its ASCS subsidiary, will earn between 6% and 8% on up to a billion Canadian dollars equivalent worth loaned out to small businesses.
  • This is an annual rate payable monthly and the initial deal will be for a two year term. Meaning that PKK can earn up to $60 to $80 million in gross revenue per year, or $120 million to $160 million for the life of the agreement, with the expectation that the agreement will be renewed.
  • Through its partnership agreement with WU, loans serviced will initially be for Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank.
  • WU has a total of 19 partner banks, including the Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, HSBC and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). So there is ample opportunity to significantly increase this business relationship.
  • ASCS will provide WU with a security deposit representing 10% of the continuous aggregate value of the loans it services. Peak subsidiary Asia Synergy Financial Capital and former Wenyi now ASCS financial partner Qianzhou Small Loan Co. Ltd. will provide ASCS access to funding to meet its security deposit obligations to WU.
What is the security deposit and what are the risks involved?

This is obviously a very lucrative deal for PKK; the main caveat here is the security deposit. Up to $100 million will be required for this deposit, assuming the entire billion dollars is loaned out. That raises some questions:

How will the deposit be financed?
Who is the guarantor behind it? ASCS or Qianzhou?
Will this be equity dilutive to PKK in any way?
Will the deposit be a significant barrier for PKK being able to loan out hundreds of millions quickly? For instance, if $500 million in loans were ready to initiated immediately, would ASCS first have to raise the $50 million security deposit or is the expectation that this money can be raised quickly without an issue?
Is PKK responsible to pay any interest on the money used to finance the security deposit?

Finally - if ASCS is providing a security deposit, what exactly is the risk to the banks loaning the funds? The security deposit is 10% of the balance of outstanding loans, and it would be very unlikely that the default rate approaches anywhere near that level. As in other words, if ASCS is taking on all the risk of default, isn't this essentially a risk free loan? Of course the banks would love that. They would accept a 5-10% interest rate for virtually no risk of default. What a great deal! On PKK's side this would also make a lot of sense. This would function essentially as a loan to ASCS from the banks in order to re-loan that money to small businesses, something many shareholders have been clamoring for anyways. If future deals are structured like this and Peak proves to be profitable by keeping the default rate well below the agency fee, there is absolutely no reason for banks to not take the opportunity to lend out money that nets them 5-10% interest rate and is financially engineered to be "risk-less".

The obvious major risk factor here to this business model laid out in the agreement and to Peak is if the default rate spirals out of control. I have spoken with members of Peak management about this already and I believe a 2% default rate is a reasonable ceiling. Management thinks this default rate should be much lower, and they have identified two reasons for that opinion. First, the technology behind Cubeler and the ability to analyze reliable and timely financial data. Second, the culture for business in China is one that owners will do their absolute best to fulfill the financial obligations they have created. Still, desire to pay back your debts and the ability to pay back your debts are two different things. 

With that being said, I believe that Peak's business is starting at an ideal time. China is coming off of an economic boom where the economy is cooling off a bit and there are worries about a trade war with the United States as well as frosty relations with Canada. The irony of having had this business start earlier is that if Peak had loaned a lot of money out before Donald Trump became U.S. President, people would be worried if there were a lot of bad loans outstanding by now. Starting the loan business now means that a lot of the weaker small businesses out there would have been culled during this pullback. Plus the data collected by Cubeler is supposed to properly vet the likelihood of default. What better time to vet these companies than in a time of a slight slowdown and political turmoil? If they can survive this environment, they are more likely to survive any kind of business environment.

Estimating a cash flow model and valuation for this business

Until some of the questions I have laid out can be answered, I will have to make several assumptions based on reasonable and conservative scenarios for this business:
  • Peak can fully finance the security deposit at any given time at a 10% rate.
  • Default rate is 2%
  • Loan agency fee is 7%
  • ASFC and any other marginal ASDS business is cash flow/EBITDA breakeven
In Q3, PKK recorded $710K in revenue and -$236K in EBITDA in its first full quarter of operations for ASFC with very marginal revenues coming from the other subsidiaries. This is reasonably close to breakeven and the company has previously laid out projections that 2019 will be EBITDA breakeven. As a simplifying assumption, I will assume breakeven operations for 2019 outside of the deal announced today. So essentially I am valuing the company at today's deal only.

Assuming all billion dollars is loaned out:
  • Revenue over a 12 month period is $70 million.
  • Default rate of 2% leads to $20 million in bad debt written off.
  • Financing $100 million of a security deposit at 10% interest rate leads to $10 million in interest expense.
  • Cubeler makes 3-5% royalty on gross revenues. assuming a 4% rate on $70 million is $3 million.
The net effect of these four assumptions is $37 million. Employee and other like expenses should be covered off in the "EBITDA breakeven" scenario of 2019, but I will assume another $2 million for added growth and just to get to a nice even number - a 50% margin on the $70 million in revenue leads to $35 million in EBITDA.

Another way of looking at it is $3.5 million in EBITDA is generated for every $100 million loaned out. Again, if Peak management can answer some or all of the questions I have outstanding (either directly to me or in a future investor presentation), these numbers can be updated with greater precision.

Assuming Peak can loan out all billion dollars in a reasonable time frame, how much is $35 million in EBITDA worth? Without getting into specific price targets and using generic examples assuming 850 million fully diluted shares (I'm assuming enterprise value equals market cap which would value Peak's net cash position at zero, another conservative assumption):

$0.10 stock price = $85 million enterprise value and 2.4 EBITDA multiple
$0.20 stock price = $170 million enterprise value and 4.9 EBITDA multiple
$0.50 stock price = $425 million enterprise value and 12.1 EBITDA multiple
$1.00 stock price = $850 million enterprise value and 24.3 EBITDA multiple

I will let the investor decide what is a fair price for this one agreement. Let's see if there are more to come.

This was just quick, back of the envelop calculations provided to the reader for free. I don't get paid anything for this. As they say in life, you get what you pay for.